Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.309840 3.578194 3.882789 4.260378 4.725528 5.294318 6.068589
2025-02-09 2.956981 3.297254 3.712320 4.275636 5.057891 6.180998 8.117589
2025-02-16 2.755662 3.133260 3.615991 4.314199 5.378315 7.142281 11.118456
2025-02-23 2.546588 2.924751 3.420289 4.162630 5.357942 7.536388 13.666136
2025-03-02 2.434891 2.827072 3.355141 4.178564 5.595360 8.525573 20.736899
2025-03-09 2.335812 2.734894 3.283812 4.167981 5.778270 9.538160 38.155209
2025-03-16 2.231068 2.625822 3.176041 4.080895 5.792612 10.162157 95.396935
2025-03-23 2.185693 2.594466 3.176962 4.169515 6.179481 12.328320 NaN
2025-03-30 2.092112 2.488990 3.057875 4.036649 6.057328 12.603408 NaN
2025-04-06 2.004189 2.387200 2.937906 3.890251 5.876772 12.521162 NaN
2025-04-13 1.937417 2.312593 2.855063 3.801941 5.815151 12.977744 NaN
2025-04-20 1.914896 2.300137 2.866512 3.883358 6.178744 16.362361 NaN
2025-04-27 1.907775 2.311173 2.917919 4.051502 6.853209 26.556545 NaN
2025-05-04 1.870148 2.275233 2.891565 4.067096 7.121941 38.827286 NaN
2025-05-11 1.839024 2.247274 2.875953 4.101811 7.471950 83.873346 NaN
2025-05-18 1.779782 2.174472 2.781960 3.965373 7.210761 77.061276 NaN
2025-05-25 1.750830 2.146446 2.761120 3.979742 7.481899 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.719770 2.113880 2.730643 3.970199 7.669822 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.679252 2.065398 2.670773 3.891563 7.570276 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.666862 2.059542 2.683031 3.971582 8.145310 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.623892 2.004957 2.608746 3.851539 7.827975 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.580498 1.948828 2.530316 3.718770 7.442021 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.547040 1.907433 2.476276 3.638427 7.275058 NaN NaN